Dune 2 May Perk Up the Box Office

In the wake of some smart publicity, Dune: Part Two may be exactly what a struggling early 2024 box office needs to perk everyone’s spirits up. Projections for this release (in what has otherwise been a rather barren space) have heated up considerably as it hits its three-week tracking. Our local entertainment attorney insider, Brandon Blake at Blake & Wang P.A. shares the juicy details.



$65M Opening, Minimum

Even the most conservative opening estimates for this long-awaited (and several times delayed) release are currently tracking at $65M. This would put the film at least 60% ahead of its part one opening in 2021, which was $41M. Dune: Part 1 did see a considerable siphoning of its theatrical returns due to a day-and-date release on then-HBO Max, now rebranded to Max. Despite this, it was the second-highest day-and-date release for Warner Media (again now rebranded to Warner Bros. Discovery). Total earnings were $402M, with a record income of $108.3M domestically.

Ticket Sales Open

Dune: Part Two tickets have been on sale since the final week of January. These presale numbers are ahead of that for Oppenheimer and likely represent a big chunk of diehard fans. However, more optimistic predictions peg its opening weekend in the $75M-$80M range.

Let’s finish with a warning, however. There’s a strong undercurrent from the industry wanting to see Dune: Part 2 perform well. It’s our first blockbuster of the year, and there has been a very soft start so far. It would be fantastic if it over-indexes to give that a boost. However, 2023 was a lesson in not counting box office eggs before they hatch. Dune: Part 2 seems destined to have a strong start, regardless of anything else. If that is a conservative $65M and not a lofty $80M, it will still be a fantastic opening. Over-indexing would just be delicious sprinkles to add to that icing. 

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