Box Office Pins October Hopes on Black Adam

While the September Box Office performed a little better than its $300M projection, closing out at $317M, it was still a dull month, the worst on record since April 2021. And October barely looks better. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Entertainment attorney with Blake & Wang P.A, Brandon Blake, elaborates.



                                                                      Brandon Blake


Small Victories

September did bring us three notable female-lead movies, especially the surprise dark horse of The Woman King, that each managed to open at $19M or more. This could be a juicy cue for the industry to lean into this under-serviced niche more.


October, typically a grungy month in the Box Office calendar even in pre-pandemic years, also has a solid chance at a better-than-average performance. It is still unlikely to beat October 2021, however, which had Halloween Kills, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Dune, and the latest Bond installment, No Time to Die, to boost its bottom line. Each opened over $40M, with Venom hitting $90M.


We do, however, have a stronger fourth quarter on the slate, with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opening early in November and Avatar: The Way of Water in December. And October may, with luck, hit a $400M-$600M spread.

All Hopes on Black Adam

This might have inched a bit higher if Black Adam, the latest DC Comics release, was opening earlier in the month, but it regrettably only opens on October 21st. Current tracking suggests it could open to $75M, possibly pulling in around $150M by month’s end. We also have yet another installment of the Halloween franchise, Halloween Ends. While not expected to match the $49M of Halloween Kills, it still should make at least $35M. Sony’s latest animation, Lyle Lyle, Crocodile, should pull in a modest, if helpful, $10M-$20M, too. Amsterdam, sadly, has fallen flat of expectations all around, and has struggled to reach $10M.

There’s also a slate of solid limited-release titles to help bolster figures, our strongest arthouse release circuit in three years. 

It may not be the most exciting October on record, but at least it should do better than September.

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